There are different philosophies about how to handle multiple injuries. Last year, TCU women’s basketball opted to forfeit games. UCLA did the same a few years ago. Houston is following the path Arizona took last year. The Cougars continue to fight with who they have.
It’s not an easy road. On top of simply being shorthanded, the injuries affect how the Cougars play. Like Arizona, they are a pressing team that relies on defense to set up easy offense.
“We are struggling because we are having to adjust to a different style of play than we want to play,” Houston head coach Ronald Hughey told the Daily Cougar in late January. “We are a very aggressive team that likes to press, but you have to have more than six or seven healthy players to do that.”
The Cougars lost transfer Kateri Poole before the season started. The former Ohio State and LSU guard was the No. 24 recruit in 2020 and was supposed to be a big part of the Houston attack this season. A knee injury nixed that before it even started.
Texas Tech transfer Ashley Chevalier, who started 10 games early in the season, is also missing from the lineup. She hasn’t played at all since Jan. 25 against Kansas and is out indefinitely due to personal reasons according to the program.
Redshirt senior Leilani Augmon also started several games this year. The much-traveled guard started eight contests at the beginning of the season and returned to the opening lineup for three games beginning on Jan. 11.
Augmon suffered a broken nose three minutes into the game against Baylor on Jan. 17 and had surgery 10 days later. She has been out since, although the program hoped to get her back by mid-February.
Arizona head coach Adia Barnes still expects to face aggressive defense against the Cougars.
“We’re gonna get pressed,” Barnes said. “We’re gonna travel, get pressed from when we step off the plane in Houston this weekend.”
In the Wildcats’ favor, they got their biggest win against an aggressive defensive team when they upset No. 17 West Virginia. While they turned the ball over 23 times—well above their average of 16.3 per game—they forced 21 turnovers from the Mountaineers and won the battle for fastbreak points. They also won the rebounding battle against WVU and shot almost 50 percent from the floor.
The things that Houston does well, Arizona does better. The Wildcats average 10.4 steals per game and have a steal rate of 12.4 percent, according to Her Hoop Stats. Those stats rank 34th and 35th in the country, respectively. The Cougars average 8.8 steals per game and have a 10.7 percent steal rate. While still in the top 100 of Division I, those rank 95th and 94th.
Houston has overcome the numbers this season, though. The Cougars’ lone conference win came against a ranked Oklahoma State team in mid-January. That game was played in Houston, just as this one will be.
If Arizona wants to look at how things can go sideways on the road against a team with nothing to lose, it needs only to look at the Wildcats’ soccer team when they went to Houston.
Those Wildcats looked to be rolling with their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2019 in their sights. They were on a four-game undefeated streak and had four winnable games ahead of them. The Cougars were winless in Big 12 play. Houston ended up with one win. It came against Arizona and likely kept the Wildcats out of the tourney despite 11 wins.
Arizona women’s basketball is in a similar position with a string of winnable games in front of it and an opponent with nothing to lose. It can’t drop this one if it hopes to remain in the NCAA bubble discussion. As of now, ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme has the Wildcats as a member of the first four out.
“Our coach said that today starts a new season for our hopes for the postseason, so that’s what we were thinking about,” Wildcat guard Skylar Jones said after the team defeated BYU.
That new season continues on Saturday.
By the numbers
NET resume
Arizona: No. 58 ranking, 1-7 Quad 1 record, 3-3 Quad 2 record, 2-2 Quad 3 record, 10-0 Quad 4 record, 6-12 record vs Top 100
Houston: No. 178 ranking, 1-7 Quad 1 record, 0-2 Quad 2 record, 0-6 Quad 3 record, 4-6 Quad 4 record, 2-13 record vs Top 100
Her Hoop Stats rankings
Arizona: No. 60 overall, No. 81 offensive rating, No. 36 defensive rating
Houston: No. 210 overall, No. 224 offensive rating, No. 197 defensive rating
Massey rating
Arizona: No. 46 overall, No. 65 offensive rating, No. 22 defensive rating
Houston: No. 155 overall, No. 153 offensive rating, No. 92 defensive rating
KPI ranking
Arizona: No. 65
Houston: No. 220
Projections and probabilities
Her Hoop Stats: Arizona has an 85.4 percent win probability on the road. The projected team point totals are 68.8 for Arizona and 56.9 for Houston. The overall point total is projected at 125.8.
Massey: Arizona has a win probability of 75 percent at Houston. The most likely score is 67-58.
