A lot was accomplished on Saturday, when Arizona went to Houston and beat the two-time defending Big 12 regular season champions on their own court.
The win helped the Wildcats (25-2, 12-2) take over sole possession of first place in the Big 12, with effectively a 2-game lead on the field with four to go. It also further solidified their chances of getting a No. 1 seed and having the chance to remain on the West Coast for the first two weekends of the NCAA Tournament.
But none of that will matter if the UA gets tripped up in its next game, Tuesday night at Baylor. After four consecutive games against ranked opponents the Wildcats are getting a break—on paper, at least—before another tough set of games against No. 14 Kansas and No. 4 Iowa State.
“We’ve put ourselves in position to be in position, now you’ve got to take advantage of that,” UA coach Tommy Lloyd said after the Houston win. “I’m sure this win doesn’t look bad on our resume when it comes down to seeding and you’re hoping for matchups in the tournament. But by no means does this win guarantee anything.”
Here’s what to watch for when the Wildcats face the Bears in Waco:
The new normal for at least another game
Koa Peat traveled with Arizona to Texas despite being ruled out for the Houston game, and he’s unlikely to play at Baylor either. Same goes for Dwayne Aristode, who did not make the trip while dealing with an illness.
Peat was officially listed as questionable on the Monday night availability report, while Aristode was again listed as out
That means this would be the third consecutive game for the Wildcats with its adjusted starting lineup and rotation, one that has seen little-used reserves Sidi Gueye and Evan Nelson playing valuable minutes. The two logged 17 minutes at Houston, and though they combined for just one rebound (Nelson) and one block (Gueye) along with one turnover and two fouls, they helped in ways that don’t show up in the box score.
Tobe Awaka and Motiejus Krivas both fouled out at Houston, and Brayden Burries was still recovering from his own illness that led to him getting an IV after Wednesday’s home win over BYU. As a result, in the final minute with the UA trying to hold off Houston Gueye and Nelson were subbing in and out for each other.
The absence of Peat has fundamentally changed the way Arizona operates on offense, with Lloyd noting that changes were made between BYU and Houston to allow for more space on the floor for the wings to operate. That enabled Anthony Dell’Orso to have his second straight 22-point game, while Ivan Kharchenkov has 34 in the last two games.
Dell’Orso appeared to roll his ankle late at Houston, though he did return to action. He’s also listed as questionable for Baylor.
Baylor won the national title in 2021, beating Lloyd’s unbeaten Gonzaga team in the title game to complete a 28-2 season. That was one of seven consecutive 20-win campaigns for the Bears under Scott Drew, who has run the program since 2003-04 and turned it into a national power after it was mired in scandal.
But barring a miracle run through the Big 12 Tournament, Baylor (14-13, 4-10) will miss its first NCAA tourney since 2019. It has already guaranteed itself its first losing conference record since 2018 and is projected to go 5-13, per KenPom, which would tie for 13th place.
Unranked to start the season for the first time since 2017-18, the Bears’ best wins came at the Players Era Festival in November when they beat Creighton and San Diego State and they had lost five of six Big 12 home games before beating ASU on Saturday.
Guards Cameron Carr and Tounde Yessoufou are each averaging more than 17 points per game in Big 12 play and both rebound well, but the frontcourt is lacking in size and skill. The Bears are the worst in the league at taking care of the ball, averaging 12.6 turnovers per game, and Arizona is coming off a stellar performance in that area against Houston which is best at avoiding turnovers.
Baylor’s roster features former Arizona walk-on Will Kuykendall, who has appeared in seven games. He got into three games with the UA last season.
Arizona’s losses this season are both to ranked teams, by four points on the road at Kansas and by three in overtime to Texas Tech. Neither of those results were due to overlooking the opponent or looking ahead, and when the Wildcats have played lesser teams in the Big 12 the performances have strong.
But with Kansas and Iowa State just over the horizon, and the prospect of being able to clinch the Big 12 title at home during one of those games, the scenario exists where Arizona could be looking ahead.
The UA had one of those “trap” losses last season, falling at Kansas State on the heels of a big home win over Texas Tech and with Houston coming to McKale Center. That was the last time the Wildcats have lost to a team outside the Top 30 in KenPom (Baylor is 48th).
